活动时间：2022-10-20 15:00

活动地点：腾讯会议 290-364-738 

主讲人：林支桂

主讲人中文简介：

扬州大学二级教授、博士研究生导师、中国数学会生物数学专业委员会副主任、《生物数学学报》和《Int. J. Biomath.》杂志编委。主要研究偏微分方程，先后主持国家自然科学基金面上项目6项。

活动内容摘要：

This talk extends the classic SEAIR and delay IJR epidemic systems to study two models of covid-19 prevention and control. A staged and weighted network system is firstly formulated, and five stages have been taken into consideration according to four-tier response to Public Health Crisis. Staggered basic reproduction number has been derived and we evaluate the effectiveness of lockdown and social distancing policies under different scenarios in mainland China. Secondly, a new model is proposed to mimic the Zero-COVID strategy applied in Yangzhou. The novel dynamic model with time-delays describing isolation and large-scale detection is established by distinguishing infected persons in communities and centralized isolation areas. Using numerical simulations, we compare the scenarios under different control modes and levels. The qualitative and quantitative results provide insightful reference for decision-making if the Zero-COVID policy and trace-test-quarantine strategy is adopted.

主持人：秦玉明